Statistics for occurrence #1 of “Mr. Seddon” in chapter 7 of General Joseph E. Johnston, Narrative of Military Operations During the Civil War:

...nt to determine. Without some great blunder of the enemy, we cannot hold both. The odds against me are much greater than those you express (two to one). I consider saving Vicksburg hopeless. Mr. Seddon replied on the 16th: Your telegram grieves and alarms me. Vicksburg must not be lost without a desperate struggle. The interest and honor of the Confederacy forbid it. I rely on you still to avert ...
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